A fallback dry run wrote real reboot-surviving state, and a failed tier writeback reported itself as a dry run

Fallback/fallback.sh

@@ -368,6 +368,22 @@ state_set() {
 }
 
 state_init() {
+    # A dry run must not leave the host believing it failed over. state_set() writes
+    # unconditionally, and this file survives reboots and is what the real daemon — and the
+    # Monitor and Fallback cards — read to decide what is happening. A --dry-run walk through
+    # FAILOVER would have written state=FALLBACK, the tier flags and the strike counter into it
+    # for real, and nothing would have put them back.
+    #
+    # Copied rather than merely redirected, so the preview still starts from the live state and
+    # can advance through tiers exactly as a real run would. The copy lands in the RAM cache and
+    # dies with the reboot.
+    if [[ "$DRY_RUN" == true ]]; then
+        local live="$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE"
+        FALLBACK_STATE_FILE="${VV_CACHE_ROOT:-/tmp/varaverk}/fallback_state.dryrun.$$"
+        mkdir -p "$(dirname "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE")"
+        if [[ -f "$live" ]]; then cp -f "$live" "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE"; else : > "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE"; fi
+        warn "DRY RUN — state writes redirected to $FALLBACK_STATE_FILE (live state untouched)"
+    fi
     mkdir -p "$(dirname "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE")"
     [[ ! -f "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE" ]] && touch "$FALLBACK_STATE_FILE"
     [[ -z "$(state_get state)" ]]                  && state_set state "NORMAL"
@@ -759,8 +775,16 @@ run_handback() {
                 for job in "${jobs[@]}"; do
                     [[ -z "$job" ]] && continue
                     log "Syncing: $job"
-                    [[ "$DRY_RUN" == false ]] && bash "$SCRIPT_DIR/../Rsync/rsync.sh" "$job" \
-                        || warn "DRY RUN — would rsync: $job"
+                    # if/else, not A && B || C. In the shorthand a REAL run whose rsync exits
+                    # non-zero falls through to the || branch and logs "DRY RUN — would rsync",
+                    # so a failed Tier writeback reported itself as a preview and the real
+                    # failure went unsaid. The Tier 1 block below always had this right.
+                    if [[ "$DRY_RUN" == false ]]; then
+                        bash "$SCRIPT_DIR/../Rsync/rsync.sh" "$job" \
+                            || error "Tier $tier writeback FAILED: $job"
+                    else
+                        warn "DRY RUN — would rsync: $job"
+                    fi
                 done
             else
                 log "Tier $tier writeback skipped — outage ${outage_minutes}min < ${threshold}min"